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The South Africa Model developed by the Council for Geoscience, Pretoria South Africa and GEM is now available on the GEM website. The release includes the OpenQuake engine input files, documentation and a link to the paper describing the national model published by the Journal of African Earth Sciences.

The model, developed by the Council for Geoscience, South Africa and the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) with support from GEM, used 22 area sources in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment calculation using the OpenQuake software. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) map shows high hazard in the gold mining regions of South Africa. Hazard maps show results slightly different in spatial distribution from previous results obtained for South Africa.

The model is part of the Africa Earthquake Hazard and Risk model, which underpins the African portion of GEM’s global maps released in December 2018. The Africa Earthquake Model was developed as a mosaic of regional models for Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, West Africa and South Africa, involving and building the capacity of local experts where possible. The SubSaharan model was developed as part of the Sub-Sahara Hazard and Risk Assessment (SSAHARA) project funded by USAID, covering Eastern SubSaharan Africa.

This is the first seismic hazard map released after many years since the previous national seismic hazard for South Africa. The availability of more reliable seismicity and geological data has made it possible to update the old maps using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodologies that take into consideration all available data.

The results can be used by risk managers, urban planners, emergency responders and humanitarian agencies for input to a wide range of disaster risk reduction activities including monitoring of the Sendai Framework indicators.

The model and paper can be downloaded .